Bitcoin saw a strong move on Friday after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a speech that traders interpreted as a sign the Fed might cut interest rates in September. The market reacted quickly. Bitcoin, which had fallen from $118,000 to below $112,000 earlier in the day, jumped to almost $116,000 shortly after Powell began speaking.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $115,561. This marks a 3% gain over the past 24 hours, based on Coingecko data. However, the weekly change remains negative, with a drop of 2%. Trading volume over the past 24 hours is recorded at $51.6 billion.
Meanwhile, the price surge followed a slow decline that had lasted several days, as traders targeted areas of lower liquidity before Friday’s reversal.
Market sentiment shifted as well. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index moved up 10 points to a score of 60 on Saturday, changing from neutral to greed. Earlier in the week, the index had briefly dropped into fear territory.
Historical Patterns Point to Possible Top in October
Bitcoin’s current market cycle may be approaching a turning point. A chart from Glassnode compares price growth from previous cycle lows, covering the 2015–2018, 2018–2022, and current 2022+ cycles. Each cycle shows a period of strong growth before a major peak and eventual correction.
Notably, the 2015–2018 cycle gained over 9,000%, while the 2018–2022 cycle rose by more than 1,600%. The current cycle has shown a slower climb but still follows a similar structure. The chart highlights October 25, 2025, as a date that aligns with when past cycles topped out.
Analyst Ali Martinez commented,
“Based on the last two Bitcoin $BTC cycles, the next market top could be just two months away.”
He added, “Things could get wild,” pointing to increased market movement as a possibility during this period.
Weekend Trading Remains Quiet After Friday Rally
After Friday’s bounce, Bitcoin’s price has moved sideways. According to Daan Crypto Trades, the market is currently quiet. He stated,
“Now consolidating here during the weekend. Not expecting much from BTC and won’t be actively trading after a good week and excellent Friday.”
The calm weekend follows a strong Friday, where the price recovered sharply. With little volume and no major events scheduled, traders are keeping activity low ahead of the new week. This quiet period is typical for weekends in crypto, especially following strong moves.
One technical area attracting interest is the CME futures gap. On Friday, CME Bitcoin futures closed at around $117,053. Spot price has since dropped to around $115,722, creating a gap of roughly $1,300. These weekend gaps are common due to the CME’s weekday trading schedule and the crypto market’s 24/7 nature.
Bitcoin has a history of moving toward the CME closing price when futures reopen. This has led some traders to expect a short-term move back to the $117,000 range. A chart shared by Daan Crypto Trades shows the gap clearly, along with a magnet symbol marking the CME close level.
Leverage Levels Raise Risk of Sudden Drops
Market data also shows a large group of leveraged long positions sitting between $110,000 and $111,000. Analyst Kamran Asghar shared that
“$BTC’s liquidation chart shows a massive stack of leveraged long positions concentrated between $110,000 and $111,000.”
If price moves toward this area, there is a chance of a “long squeeze,” where traders are forced to close positions. This could cause a sharp move lower as stop orders and liquidations trigger in that range.
As the new trading week approaches, Bitcoin remains in a key zone. With cycle data, macro news, and technical levels all in play, traders are watching closely for the next move.
