KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- Bitcoin rallied 14% in one week, approaching $124,000 amid strong US-led buying pressure and market optimism.
- Total cryptocurrency market capitalization surged past $4.21 trillion, signaling broad-based strength.
- Coinbase Premium Gap hit $92, indicating intense demand from US investors during government shutdown.
- Analysts project resistance near $130,000 with potential price discovery above $125,500 next week.
Bitcoin staged a powerful rally over the past week, climbing 14% to trade near $124,000 after bouncing from a range low of $108,600. The surge positioned the cryptocurrency within striking distance of fresh price-discovery territory above $125,500, while the total crypto market capitalization pushed past $4.21 trillion.
This milestone underscored the broad strength of the current rally as institutional and retail investors piled into digital assets during October’s traditionally bullish trading period.
The rally comes as October has historically delivered strong returns for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency posting gains in 10 of the last 12 years. Market participants have dubbed the month “Uptober,” and analysts expect the favorable seasonal trend to continue through the fourth quarter.
Government Shutdown Fuels Safe-Haven Demand
One surprising catalyst behind Bitcoin’s price surge has been the ongoing US government shutdown. As federal agencies furlough staff and economic data releases face delays, investors have sought refuge in Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional market uncertainty. The cryptocurrency has risen 8% since the shutdown began, with traders positioning around the lack of clear policy direction from Washington.
The government halt has complicated Federal Reserve decision-making, as key inflation and employment data could be postponed. This uncertainty has heightened speculative flows into crypto assets as market participants anticipate a more dovish monetary stance.
Bitfinex analysts noted that “Bitcoin’s movement toward a new all-time high appears genuinely organic,” pointing to steady ETF inflows and easing inflation as supportive macro conditions.
Onchain Data Confirms Strong US Buying Pressure
Onchain metrics validated the rally’s strength, with analyst Maartunn identifying a taker buy volume spike exceeding $1.6 billion in a single hour across all exchanges. This surge in buying activity reflected concentrated institutional and retail demand as Bitcoin approached its August all-time high of $124,480.
The Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures price differences between Coinbase and Binance, climbed to $91.86. CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci explained that US investors were paying nearly $92 more per Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to other exchanges, signaling intense US-led demand. This premium represents the highest level since mid-August, when bullish momentum historically cooled in 2025.
ETF Inflows and Institutional Accumulation Drive Momentum
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded substantial inflows from September 29 to October 2, with more than $2.2 billion flowing into the products. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF led the surge, attracting $446 million on October 2 alone and setting a local trading volume record. The fund entered the top 20 ETFs by assets under management for the first time, surpassing $90 billion.
Large holders have also accelerated accumulation, purchasing over 30,000 BTC within 48 hours as prices consolidated above $120,000. Bitcoin’s market capitalization increased by $124 billion since the start of October, rising from $2.276 trillion to $2.40 trillion as of October 3. Cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs since their January 2024 launch have neared $60 billion, providing sustained support for the rally.
Analysts are eyeing key resistance levels near $130,000, with Citigroup raising its year-end price target to $132,000. Standard Chartered maintained its $200,000 projection for Bitcoin by the end of 2025.
If current buying pressure persists and macroeconomic data remains favorable, Bitcoin could enter fresh price discovery territory next week, potentially setting new all-time highs during the historically strong fourth quarter.
