The expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options with a total worth of $5.3 billion is scheduled for today, October 10, during the week when the entire crypto market is quietest. Prices have slightly but significantly retreated from their previous peaks and there has been no strong push in either direction. Traders are being careful and the market has become less turbulent.
However, the price effect has been very limited in spite of the large options expiry; thus the price movements were very small and limited to a narrow range for the majority of the week.
$4.3 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expiring
Roughly 39,000 Bitcoin options contracts expire today, holding a total notional value of around $4.3 billion. While this batch is slightly larger than last week’s, the spot price has shown little reaction in recent sessions. Bitcoin traded near $121,000 during the Asian trading window after reaching a high of $123,500 earlier this week.
Coinglass data shows a put-to-call ratio of 1.1 for the current set of Bitcoin contracts, suggesting a balance with a slight tilt toward bearish positioning. The max pain point — where the most options lose value — is estimated at $117,000. Open interest is highest at the $140,000 strike price, with about $2.4 billion in positions open at that level.
Other major clusters of open interest are located at $120,000, $125,000, and $130,000. On the downside, the $110,000 strike price has become a common target for short sellers, with $1.3 billion in open interest tied to that level.
Total open interest in Bitcoin options across all platforms has climbed back near peak levels, now estimated at $60 billion.
Ethereum Contracts Add $940 Million to Expiry
Alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum will see the expiry of over 217,000 options contracts today. These contracts carry a combined notional value of approximately $940 million. Ethereum’s current put/call ratio is 0.9, pointing to a slight edge for call options, or bets that the price will rise.
The max pain level for Ethereum contracts is around $4,400. ETH briefly dropped below $4,300 in late Thursday trading before recovering to $4,350. Options open interest across all platforms stands near $16 billion.
Trading volumes for Ethereum have slowed this week, and altcoin prices in general have softened. Many assets in the sector were trading in the red Friday morning, with traders holding back from large moves.
October Pullback Slows ‘Uptober’ Trend
The idea of “Uptober” — a seasonal rise in crypto markets during October — is being tested this year. The total crypto market cap has dropped by about $200 billion since its all-time high of $4.4 trillion on October 7. This reflects a 4.5% decline, with Bitcoin and Ethereum falling 4% and 12% from their highs, respectively.
Analysts say the pullback may be a setup for a stronger move later in the month. “Markets are dumping to liquidate all the bulls and mainly the retail,” said trader Ash Crypto on Thursday, hinting that the correction may clear out overleveraged positions. The same analyst believes a recovery may take place between October 15 and 20, with a larger move expected before the month ends.
“They want you to be bearish and believe that ‘Pumptober’ is canceled,” the analyst said. “However, when the market is in complete fear, we will see a massive bounce.”
Global Conditions Weigh on Sentiment
The broader financial backdrop continues to shape trader behavior. The U.S. government remains in a shutdown, and inflation forecasts have reached three-year highs. With this uncertainty, many investors are moving funds into safer assets like gold, which recently hit a record high.
Meanwhile, the dollar continues to weaken, but crypto has not responded in a strong way. Analysts at Swissblock noted that the market remains tilted toward Bitcoin dominance. “The Bitcoin-Altcoin Cycle shows the market is now approaching the full Bitcoin season zone where capital seeks safety and structure inside Bitcoin,” they reported.
Markets are also watching the U.S. Federal Reserve. Futures data from CME shows a 94.6% chance of an interest rate cut in October, and an 81.5% chance of another cut in December. Historically, lower rates have supported risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin is up 6.4% so far this month, despite the weekly dip. At the time of writing, it was trading around $121,500. With today’s $5.3 billion expiry event passing quietly, attention may shift to mid- and late-October for signs of the next major move.
