- Barclays sees 2026 as a down year for crypto amid lower retail spot trading.
- Coinbase faces revenue pressure despite expanding into derivatives and tokenization.
- U.S. reforms like the CLARITY Act may support long-term digital asset growth.
Barclays has already given a cautious forecast of crypto in 2026, referring to declining retail and dwindling spot trading volumes as major headwinds. The bank expects a transition year of digital asset exchanges, where there are few catalysts of growth and earnings pressure on large platforms such as Coinbase.
The boom condition in the short-term markets has been traditionally fueled by retail trading; however, according to Barclays, there are fewer active traders in the spot markets. The report said that spot crypto trading volumes are expected to trend to a down year in FY26, and it is not yet apparent to us what would reverse it, but it shows the weakness of exchanges oriented towards retail.
Declining spot volumes pressuring exchanges and coinbase
Exchanges such as Coinbase and Robinhood experience the increasing pressure of spot contracts, which are a vital source of income. The increase in the cost of operation and the declining volume caused Barclays to reduce its price target of Coinbase shares. The report appreciates the expansion of the exchange into derivatives, tokenized equities, and other revenue diversification approaches but warns that the effects of this will be minimal in the short run.
Barclays also mentions that there are historical market reactions to significant events like regulatory announcements, ETF approvals, and political results. Motivation Past spikes, such as the approval of a March 2024 spot Bitcoin ETF, increased trading in the short run. Nonetheless, the analysts do not envisage a lot of similar catalysts in the year 2026 that will maintain high trading activities.
Long-term tailwinds to tokenization and U.S. regulation
Barclays, despite short-term headwinds, finds tokenization and U.S. regulatory development as possible sources of long-term growth. Such efforts as the proposed CLARITY Act are supposed to provide a definition of digital assets under securities or commodities law, clarifying the jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC. Although these kinds of reforms would result in compliant product launches, the bank cautions that the benefits will be realized over time.
Cryptocurrency-based companies and conventional financial institutions are increasing their interest in tokenized assets. Initial initiatives, such as BlackRock and Robinhood, show the potential of being strategic but are too young to make a significant difference in the 2026 earnings. Barclays positions 2026 as a year of change, and companies involved in digital assets invest in compliance, infrastructure, and tokenized finance as retail activity wanes.
