Around 29,500 Bitcoin options contracts are due to expire on September 12, carrying a notional value of about $3.4 billion. The expiry is similar in size to last week’s and comes as digital asset markets recover, pushing global capitalization back above $4 trillion.
Data from Deribit shows the heaviest open interest at the $140,000 strike, valued at $2.7 billion. Additional concentrations include $1.9 billion at $95,000 and $1.8 billion at $120,000. The put-to-call ratio for this batch stands at 1.3, showing more downside hedges than upside bets.
Along with Bitcoin, roughly 190,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring today with a notional value of $858 million. The split between puts and calls is more balanced, giving ETH a ratio close to 1.0.
Taken together, today’s expiring Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts represent about $4.25 billion. Both assets are trading above their maximum pain levels, which are $113,000 for BTC and $4,400 for ETH. Remaining above these points reduces the pressure from options expiry mechanics.
Traders Watch Fed Decision
Volatility expectations remain muted despite the large expiries. Greeks.live noted,
“The options market is pricing in relatively low future volatility, with a consensus that a 25-basis-point rate cut has already been factored in.”
Block trade activity has also risen sharply, accounting for more than half of daily flows in recent weeks. Greeks.live added,
“This indicates considerable market divergence regarding the latter half of this month, though expectations for volatility remain generally subdued.”
Traders appear split on near-term direction, balancing exposure on both sides ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision next week.
Market Snapshot and Positioning
Bitcoin reached $116,300 in Asian trading before settling around $115,500, its highest level in three weeks. Ethereum gained 3.2% to $4,530, while Solana, Dogecoin, and Chainlink also advanced. Total crypto capitalization climbed to $4.11 trillion, the strongest level since late August.
Deribit continues to dominate the options market with a 75% share of Bitcoin expiries, followed by OKX, Bybit, and Binance. Current positioning shows $2.35 billion in puts versus $1.93 billion in calls. Since BTC is holding above $113,000, over $300 million in call contracts could benefit, creating a $175 million advantage for buyers. A drop under $111,000 would reverse this, giving put holders the edge by $100 million.
What Comes Next
The immediate focus is whether Bitcoin can maintain levels above $113,000–$115,000 through expiry. Holding steady favors call buyers, while a slip below key thresholds hands control to sellers.
Macro conditions remain a critical factor. U.S. inflation data came in at 2.9% year-on-year for August, and markets are now looking to the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement. With expectations of a cut largely priced in, traders are preparing for muted volatility in the short run while keeping a bullish outlook for the fourth quarter.
