Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin gained 0.72% Saturday, closing at $107,327 after four consecutive daily losses amid market volatility
- BTC-spot ETF market recorded $1.23B net outflows last week but October inflows total $3.78B supporting prices
- Markets price in 99% probability of Fed rate cut at October 29 meeting helping stabilize Bitcoin above $100K level.
- BlackRock’s IBIT dominated with $4.0B October inflows while Grayscale GBTC and ARK ARKB saw combined $580M outflows.
Bitcoin reversed course Saturday as investors capitalized on price weakness following an extended sell-off. The leading cryptocurrency climbed 0.72% to close at $107,327 on October 19, recovering from the recent decline. The rebound provided relief after Bitcoin fell from its October 6 peak of $125,761 to a low of $103,587 on Friday.
The recovery emerged despite mounting headwinds from geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainty. President Trump’s threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese shipments intensified trade war concerns and triggered risk-off sentiment across global markets. The prolonged US government shutdown, now extending 19 days, has delayed passage of the Market Structure Bill, creating regulatory ambiguity that dampens institutional adoption.
ETF Market Faces Weekly Pressure Despite Monthly Strength
The US Bitcoin spot ETF market experienced significant turbulence, recording net outflows of $1.23 billion during the week ending October 17. The selling pressure contributed to Bitcoin’s slide below $105,000 before Saturday’s recovery stabilized prices. Weekly outflows from major issuers reflected heightened caution as macro uncertainties weighed on investor sentiment.
However, October’s broader trend tells a more constructive story. Bitcoin ETF issuers have attracted $3.78 billion in net inflows for the month, building on September’s $3.51 billion. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust emerged as the dominant player, capturing $4.0 billion in October inflows according to Farside Investors data. The fund now controls approximately 4.13% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization with $93.98 billion in net assets.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Provide Support
Market participants assign 99% odds to a Federal Reserve rate cut at the October 29 policy meeting, according to CME FedWatch Tool data. The widely anticipated 25 basis point reduction would lower the Federal Funds rate from the current 4.00%-4.25% range to 3.75%-4.00%. This monetary policy easing creates a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin by reducing opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets.
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund recorded $270 million in net inflows for October, while Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF registered combined outflows of $580 million. The divergence in flows highlights BlackRock’s market dominance and continued institutional demand despite short-term volatility.
Bitcoin exchange supply dropped to a six-year low as $4.81 billion worth of BTC left trading platforms, signaling accumulation behavior among long-term holders. This on-chain metric suggests investors view current price levels as attractive entry points despite October’s 6.16% monthly decline.
