Key Takeaways:
- Over 95% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently profitable after surpassing $117,000 price level
- Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.55 billion in weekly inflows, pushing total assets under management to $195 billion
- Exchange balances dropped to 2.38 million BTC, the lowest level in over five years
- Analysts warn elevated profit levels historically precede increased selling pressure and distribution
Glassnode reports that more than 95% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now profitable following the cryptocurrency’s surge past $117,000. Bitcoin is entering an extended euphoria phase characterized by widespread holder profitability and heightened market volatility.
Analysts noted that Bitcoin’s high profitability levels often precede periods of increased sell-side pressure. This pattern aligns with historical trends of distribution during peak bullish sentiment. This is raising concerns about potential corrections despite strong institutional demand.
Institutional Demand Reaches Record Levels
Bitcoin exchange-traded products attracted $3.55 billion in weekly net inflows, pushing total assets under management to $195.2 billion. The surge represents the highest weekly inflow on record for spot Bitcoin ETFs this year.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led the inflows, accounting for over 81% of total contributions with $970 million in a single day. Fidelity’s Origin Bitcoin Fund attracted $112.3 million, while Bitwise’s BITB recorded $60.1 million in inflows.
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick predicts another $20 billion in ETF demand before year-end. Of the $58 billion in total Bitcoin ETF inflows since launch, $23 billion have occurred in 2025 alone.
Exchange Balances Drop to Five-Year Low
Bitcoin deposits on exchanges have declined to their lowest levels in over five years, signaling reduced supply available for immediate sale. Glassnode estimates total exchange balances at 2.38 million BTC, down from 2.99 million one month earlier.
The declining balances point toward ongoing accumulation by long-term holders. Even as large buyers can still access supply through over-the-counter desks, the reduced exchange inventory suggests sustained demand pressure.
Bitcoin investment companies like Strategy and Metaplanet continue purchasing BTC as a reserve asset. This reinforces Bitcoin status as an independent asset class. Brazilian company OranjeBTC began trading on the stock market after accumulating 3,675 BTC, valued at more than $445 million.
Derivatives Market Shows Resilience
Bitcoin futures open interest across major exchanges stands at $72 billion, maintaining robust levels despite slight declines from earlier peaks. The deep and liquid derivatives market remains crucial for attracting flows from global hedge funds and asset allocators.
Bitcoin monthly futures are trading at an 8% annualized premium compared to regular spot markets. They sit within the neutral 5% to 10% range. This moderate premium reduces the risk of cascading liquidations if Bitcoin’s price experiences further dips.
Analyst Ali Martinez identified the MVRV +0.5σ band at $117,644 as a crucial support level. Staying above this level could propel Bitcoin toward $140,000, while a decline below could push prices to $95,394.
Despite the bullish momentum, analysts caution that Bitcoin faces resistance near $119,500 to $120,000. How the cryptocurrency reacts at these levels will determine whether the current rally continues or experiences a consolidation phase.
