The rally taken by gold to a record high has rejuvenated the comparison between the precious metal and Bitcoin. Analysts at VanEck think that if such a precious metal rise intends to reach $4,000 an ounce, then, theoretically, Bitcoin would be trading at $644,000, assuming the cryptocurrency manages to achieve half the total market cap of gold in the coming years.
Bitcoin has long been viewed as “digital gold,” and the latest surge in the metal’s price is fueling debate over how closely the two assets may continue to move together ahead of Bitcoin’s next halving cycle.
VanEck’s Projection and the Gold Comparison
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, shared the projection on X, writing,
“We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving.”
Sigel noted that with gold futures hitting above $4,000 per ounce, that scenario would imply an “equivalent value of $644,000 per Bitcoin.”
Gold’s rally comes as traders move toward perceived safe-haven assets amid global political uncertainty, currency weakness, and market volatility. Over the past year, gold has gained around 50%, outperforming Bitcoin during the same period. The increase in gold’s price is seen as a reflection of investor caution and shifting sentiment away from risk assets.
Bitcoin as a Store of Value for Younger Investors
Sigel explained that younger investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a modern store of value. He said,
“Roughly half of gold’s value reflects its use as a store of value rather than industrial or jewelry demand, and surveys show younger consumers in emerging markets increasingly prefer Bitcoin for that role.”
Analysts have pointed out that the preference among younger generations for digital assets could drive long-term demand. Jordi Visser, president of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, said earlier this year that many younger people believe “the financial system has been worsening every single year,” and their push for greater public spending may also support Bitcoin’s price growth in the future.
Analysts Expect Gold’s Run to Continue
Despite gold’s new peak, traders suggest that its upward movement may not be over. Veteran market analyst Peter Brandt commented,
“Gold may go substantially higher before any meaningful correction,” adding, “How much higher? No clue!”
He cautioned that those entering the market at the top could face difficulties if prices retreat in the future.
The rise in gold has created new price comparisons between the two assets. Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $126,000 earlier this week, but gold supporter Peter Schiff argued that Bitcoin is “still about 15% below its record high in gold terms.” He added, “Bitcoin would have to rise to about $148K to match its record high priced in gold,” calling the current move a “bear market rally.”
Diverging Views on Bitcoin’s Fair Value
Other market participants see the rising gold price as raising Bitcoin’s potential long-term valuation. Joe Consorti, head of growth at Bitcoin custodian Theya, said that gold’s performance has “lifted Bitcoin’s fair value floor to $1.34 million.”
VanEck’s projection, based on gold’s recent price levels, continues to fuel discussion about Bitcoin’s future trajectory after the 2024 and 2028 halving cycles. While gold’s record highs have strengthened its role as a safe-haven asset, analysts remain divided on whether Bitcoin will eventually mirror its performance or establish an entirely separate growth path.
